The Shia Rouhani probably won because he was seen as the candidate best equipped to negotiate with the West to lift sanctions and clean up Iran's economic mess. Both voters and most of the establishment agree that the policy of not compromising with the West on Iran's nuclear program has failed. The hope was that trade with India and China would offset the loss of revenue from the sanctions. This has not happened. Instead, the economy has deteriorated and inflation has exploded.
The fact that Iran needs to strike a deal with the West before the economy can recover offers slim hope for Iran's suffering Christians because headlines about the persecution of the Christian minority could damage this strategy. Therefore, it is possible that the government, in the service of diplomacy, will stop the current practice of arbitrary arrests and imprisonment of Iranian Christians for their faith.
Possible improvements to the nuclear situation
Hassan Rouhani is certainly not a reformer who wants to change the Islamic Republic. He is an insider from the established social order and wants to preserve the regime. He was the one who oversaw the suppression of the student uprising in 1999.
But Rouhani is also a very skilled diplomat. As a nuclear negotiator under President Khatami, he promoted dialog and greater transparency, bringing Iran as close to a nuclear deal with the West as they have ever been.
He will now lead a new effort to find a diplomatic solution to lifting the sanctions while retaining Iran's right to have nuclear power. It's important for Christians to pray that these negotiations succeed and that the ominous drums of war are silenced. Any military action would be a disaster. Not only for Iran, but also for the entire Middle East, and possibly the entire world.
Rouhani's balancing act: It could be worse.
Rouhani has a very difficult balancing act ahead of him. Dialogue with the West is needed, but there is also a very powerful inner circle of highly conservative forces at the top of Iran's power structure. To survive, Rouhani must persuade them to work with him. If he is seen to be too soft on Christians or the West, this 'hard core' could cripple his presidency, especially as they control the judiciary and security services. They succeeded in undermining President Khatami's political clout and could do the same to the newly elected President Rouhani.
Advocacy is important
This is where international advocacy for Christians and others plays an important role, because there is a danger that the new president and his advisors will choose to appease conservatives by continuing to persecute Christians.
Sam Yeghnazar, head of Elam Ministries, a Danish European Mission partner, says: "Although there is a glimmer of hope that the new government will ease the pressure on the Church, Christians will still be watched very closely. Even if the pressure eases, they will live with the knowledge that the persecution can worsen again at any time, as it has in the past. The Church must continue to pray and put pressure on Western leaders to make it clear to Rouhani during the new negotiations that they expect a significant improvement in the treatment of religious minorities."
At the moment, nothing is certain about the election of Rouhani, so it is important to pray and agitate for better conditions.
Pray for:
- Hassan Rouhani
- Better conditions for Christians
- That we must succeed in reaching an agreement with the West on nuclear power
